Credit Risk Management In and Out of the Financial Crisis New Approaches to Value at Risk and Other Paradigms

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Edition: 3rd
Format: Hardcover
Pub. Date: 2010-05-03
Publisher(s): Wiley
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Summary

A classic book on credit risk management is updated to reflect the current economic crisisCredit Risk Management In and Out of the Financial Crisis dissects the 2007-2008 credit crisis and provides solutions for professionals looking to better manage risk through modeling and new technology. This book is a complete update to Credit Risk Measurement: New Approaches to Value at Risk and Other Paradigms, reflecting events stemming from the recent credit crisis.Authors Anthony Saunders and Linda Allen address everything from the implications of new regulations to how the new rules will change everyday activity in the finance industry. They also provide techniques for modeling-credit scoring, structural, and reduced form models-while offering sound advice for stress testing credit risk models and when to accept or reject loans. Breaks down the latest credit risk measurement and modeling techniques and simplifies many of the technical and analytical details surrounding them Concentrates on the underlying economics to objectively evaluate new models Includes new chapters on how to prevent another crisis from occurringUnderstanding credit risk measurement is now more important than ever. Credit Risk Management In and Out of the Financial Crisis will solidify your knowledge of this dynamic discipline.

Author Biography

Anthony Saunders is the John M. Schiff Professor of Finance and former chair of the Department of Finance at the Stern School of Business at New York University. He holds positions on the Board of Academic Consultants of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors as well as the Council of Research Advisors for the Federal National Mortgage Association, and has been a visiting scholar at the Comptroller of the Currency and at the International Monetary Fund.

Linda Allen is the Presidential Professor of Finance at the Zicklin School of Business at Baruch College, City University of New York (CUNY), and Adjunct Professor of Finance at the Stern School of Business, New York University. She has been a member of the Standard & Poor's Academic Council since its formation in 2004. Professor Allen has published extensively in top academic journals in finance and economics.

Table of Contents

List of Abbreviationsp. xi
Prefacep. xv
Bubbles and Crises: The Global Financial Crisis of 2007–2009
Setting the Stage for Financial Meltdownp. 3
Introductionp. 3
The Changing Nature of Bankingp. 3
Reengineering Financial Institutions and Marketsp. 17
Summaryp. 21
Ratings Comparisons for the Three Major Rating Agenciesp. 23
The Three Phases of the Credit Crisisp. 24
Introductionp. 24
Bursting of the Credit Bubblep. 24
Credit Crisis in the Mortgage Marketp. 29
The Crisis Spreads—Liquidity Riskp. 33
The Lehman Failure—Underwriting and Political Intervention Riskp. 37
Summaryp. 43
The Crisis and Regulatory Failurep. 45
Introductionp. 45
Crisis Interventionp. 45
Looking Forward: Restructuring Plansp. 52
Summaryp. 64
Probability of Default Estimation
Loans as Options: The Moody's KMV Modelp. 67
Introductionp. 67
The Link between Loans and Optionsp. 67
The Moody's KMV Modelp. 70
Testing the Accuracy of EDF™ Scoresp. 74
Critiques of Moody's KMV EDF™ Scoresp. 86
Summaryp. 93
Merton's Valuation Modelp. 93
Moody's KMV RiskCalc™p. 95
Reduced Form Models: Kamakura's Risk Managerp. 98
Introductionp. 98
Deriving Risk-Neutral Probabilities of Defaultp. 99
Generalizing the Discrete Model of Risky Debt Pricingp. 102
The Loss Intensity Processp. 105
Kamakura's Risk Information Services (KRIS)p. 108
Determinants of Bond Spreadsp. 110
Summaryp. 114
Understanding a Basic Intensity Processp. 114
Other Credit Risk Modelsp. 117
Introductionp. 117
Credit Scoring Systemsp. 117
Mortality Rate Systemsp. 121
Artificial Neural Networksp. 125
Comparison of Default Probability Estimation Modelsp. 127
Summaryp. 131
Estimation of Other Model Parameters
A Critical Parameter: Loss Given Defaultp. 135
Introductionp. 135
Academic Models of LGDp. 135
Disentangling LGD and PDp. 142
Moody's KMV's Approach to LGD Estimationp. 143
Kamakura's Approach to LGD Estimationp. 146
Summaryp. 146
The Credit Risk of Portfolios and Correlationsp. 148
Introductionp. 148
Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT): An Overviewp. 149
Applying MPT to Nontraded Bonds and Loansp. 150
Estimating Correlations across Nontraded Assetsp. 152
Moody's KMV's Portfolio Managerp. 153
Kamakura and Other Reduced Form Modelsp. 161
Summaryp. 165
Putting the Parameters Together
The VAR Approach: CreditMetrics and Other Modelsp. 169
Introductionp. 169
The Concept of Value at Riskp. 170
Capital Requirementsp. 177
Technical Issues and Problemsp. 180
The Portfolio Approach in CreditMetricsp. 184
Summaryp. 195
Calculating the Forward Zero Curve for Loan Valuationp. 195
Estimating Unexpected Losses Using Extreme Value Theoryp. 200
The Simplified Two-Asset Subportfolio Solution to the N-Asset Portfolio Casep. 202
CreditMetrics and Swap Credit Riskp. 202
Stress Testing Credit Risk Models: Algorithmics Mark-to-Futurep. 208
Introductionp. 208
Back-Testing Credit Risk Modelsp. 209
Using the Algorithmics Mark-to-Future Modelp. 215
Stress Testing U.S. Banks in 2009p. 220
Summaryp. 227
RAROC Modelsp. 228
Introductionp. 228
What Is RAROC?p. 228
RAROC, ROA, and RORACp. 229
Alternative Forms of RAROCp. 230
The RAROC Denominator and Correlationsp. 235
RAROC and EVAp. 238
Summaryp. 238
Credit Risk Transfer Mechanisms
Credit Derivativesp. 243
Introductionp. 243
Credit Default Swapsp. 244
Credit Securitizationsp. 259
Financial Firms' Use of Credit Derivativesp. 269
CDS Spreads and Rating Agency Rating Systemsp. 269
Summaryp. 271
Pricing the CDS Spread with Counterparty Credit Risk Exposurep. 272
Capital Regulationp. 274
Introductionp. 274
The 2006 Basel II Planp. 275
Summaryp. 296
Loan Rating Systemsp. 297
Notesp. 303
Bibliographyp. 341
Indexp. 365
Table of Contents provided by Ingram. All Rights Reserved.

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