Computational Methods in Decision-Making, Economics and Finance

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Format: Hardcover
Pub. Date: 2002-08-31
Publisher(s): Kluwer Academic Pub
List Price: $349.99

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Summary

Computing has become essential for the modeling, analysis, and optimization of systems. This book is devoted to algorithms, computational analysis, and decision models. The chapters are organized in two parts: optimization models of decisions and models of pricing and equilibria. Optimization is at the core of rational decision making. Even when the decision maker has more than one goal or there is significant uncertainty in the system, optimization provides a rational framework for efficient decisions. The Markowitz mean-variance formulation is a classical example. The first part of the book is on recent developments in optimization decision models for finance and economics. The first four chapters of this part focus directly on multi-stage problems in finance. Chapters 5-8 involve the use of worst-case robust analysis. Chapters 9-11 are devoted to portfolio optimization. The final four chapters are on transportation-inventory with stochastic demand; optimal investment with CRRA utility; hedging financial contracts; and, automatic differentiation for computational finance. The uncertainty associated with prediction and modeling constantly requires the development of improved methods and models. Similarly, as systems strive towards equilibria, the characterization and computation of equilibria assists analysis and prediction. The second part of the book is devoted to recent research in computational tools and models of equilibria, prediction, and pricing. The first three chapters of this part consider hedging issues in finance. Chapters 19-22 consider prediction and modeling methodologies. Chapters 23-26 focus on auctions and equilibria. Volatility models are investigated in chapters 27-28. The final two chapters investigate risk assessment and product pricing. Audience: Researchers working in computational issues related to economics, finance, and management science.

Table of Contents

Preface xv
Contributing Authors xvii
Part I Optimization Models
Multi-period optimal asset allocation for a multi-currency hedged portfolio
3(12)
Domenico Mignacca
Attilio Meucci
Introduction
3(1)
Portfolio dynamics
4(3)
Optimal asset allocation
7(1)
Empirical analysis
8(3)
Conclusions
11(1)
Appendix
11(1)
Constant weights, one-currency portfolios
11(1)
Constant weights, constant hedging, multi-currency portfolios
12(2)
The evolution of the ratio of two lognormal processes
14(1)
References
14(1)
Rebalancing Strategies for Long-term Investors
15(20)
John M. Mulvey
Koray D. Simsek
Introduction
15(3)
Multi-Period Investment Model
18(4)
The Portfolio Revision Problem
22(3)
Pension Plan Example
25(5)
Conclusions
30(5)
References
31(4)
Multistage stochastic programming in computational finance
35(14)
Nalan Gulpinar
Berc Rustem
Reuben Settergren
Introduction
35(5)
Quadratic Programming Model
40(2)
Performance
42(3)
Conclusion
45(4)
References
47(2)
Multistage stochastic optimization model for the cash management problem
49(28)
Olivier Schmid
Introduction
49(2)
A multistage stochastic optimization program for the cash management problem
51(7)
Barycentric approximation
58(4)
Case Study
62(10)
Conclusions and Outlook
72(5)
References
73(4)
Robust portfolio analysis
77(12)
Berc Rustem
Reuben Settergren
Introduction
77(1)
The General Problem Formulation for Robust Decisions
78(2)
Robustness of Worst-Case Optimisation
80(2)
Benchmark Tracking with Rival Risk Scenarios
82(1)
Backtesting for Rival Return Scenarios
83(2)
Conclusions
85(4)
References
88(1)
Robust mean-semivariance portfolio optimization
89(20)
Oswaldo L. V. Costa
Rodrigo de Barros Nabholz
Introduction
89(3)
Preliminaries
92(6)
LMI Formulation
98(2)
Numerical Examples
100(3)
Conclusions
103(6)
Appendix: Proofs
104(2)
References
106(3)
Perturbative approaches for robust optimal portfolio problems
109(30)
Fabio Trojani
Paolo Vanini
Introduction
110(4)
Standard Partial Equilibrium Problems
114(5)
Robust Partial Equilibrium Problems
119(11)
Robust General Equilibrium Problems
130(5)
Conclusions
135(4)
References
136(3)
Maxmin Portfolios in Models where Immunization is not Feasible
139(28)
Alejandro Balbas
Alfredo Ibanez
Introduction
140(3)
Existence of maxmin portfolios
143(1)
The saddle point condition
144(2)
Is minimizing dispersion measures equivalent to looking for maxmin portfolios?
146(5)
Solving the maxmin portfolio in some examples
151(5)
Conclusions
156(11)
Appendix
160(3)
References
163(4)
Portfolio Optimization with VaR and Expected Shortfall
167(18)
Manfred Gilli
Evis Kellezi
Portfolio choice models
168(3)
The threshold accepting optimization heuristic
171(1)
Application
172(9)
Concluding remarks
181(4)
References
182(3)
Borrowing Constraints, Portfolio Choice, and Precautionary Motives
185(28)
Michael Haliassos
Christis Hassapis
The model
188(4)
Calibration
192(3)
Effects of borrowing constraints on saving and on portfolio choice
195(6)
Precautionary motives
201(4)
Implications for empirical testing
205(4)
Concluding remarks
209(4)
References
210(3)
The risk profile problem for stock portfolio optimization
213(18)
Ming-Yang Kao
Andreas Nolte
Stephen R. Tate
Introduction
214(2)
Notation
216(3)
The Two-Stock Case
219(7)
The k-Stock Case
226(5)
References
229(2)
A capacitated transportation-inventory problem with stochastic demands
231(18)
Paveena Chaovalitwongse
H. Edwin Romeijn
Panos M. Pardalos
Introduction
232(1)
Problem Descriptions and Model Formulation
233(3)
A mixed-integer linear scenario optimization problem
236(2)
The Dynamic Slope Scaling Procedure
238(2)
Computational Experiments
240(3)
Conclusion
243(6)
References
247(2)
Utility maximisation with a time lag in trading
249(22)
L. C. G. Rogers
E. J. Stapleton
Introduction
250(1)
The continuous-time problem
251(3)
Asymptotics for the discrete-time model
254(7)
The asymptotics of the delay effect, II
261(1)
Comparing asymptotics and exact calculation
262(2)
Conclusions
264(7)
Appendix
265(4)
References
269(2)
Simulations for hedging financial contracts with optimal decisions
271(26)
H. Windcliff
P.A. Forsyth
K.R. Vetzal
W.J. Morland
Introduction and Motivation
272(1)
Contract Description: Segregated Fund Guarantees
273(3)
A Mathematical Description of the Hedging Strategy
276(2)
Simulating Contracts With Optimization Features
278(3)
Results
281(13)
Conclusions and Future Work
294(3)
References
295(2)
Automatic differentiation for computational finance
297(16)
Christian H. Bischof
H. Martin Bucker
Bruno Lang
Introduction
297(1)
Forward and reverse mode
298(7)
AD from a User's Perspective
305(1)
Available AD Tools
306(7)
References
310(3)
Part II Equilibria, Modelling and Pricing
Interest rate barrier options
313(12)
Giovanni Barone-Adesi
Ghulam Sorwar
Introduction
313(3)
Interest Rate Barrier Options
316(1)
Monte Carlo Simulation of the CKLS Diffusion Process
317(5)
Summary
322(3)
References
322(3)
Pricing American options by fast solutions of LCPs
325(14)
Artan Borici
Hans-Jakob Luthi
Introduction
325(1)
Definition of the pricing problem
326(5)
Solution of LCP
331(6)
Concluding remarks
337(2)
References
338(1)
Hedging with Monte Carlo simulation
339(16)
Jaksa Cvitanic
Levon Goukasian
Fernando Zapatero
Asset Pricing using Monte Carlo Simulation
341(1)
Construction of a Hedging Portfolio
342(3)
The Retrieval of Volatility Method
345(4)
Examples
349(2)
Multi-factor Models
351(1)
Conclusions
352(3)
References
353(2)
In Search of Deterministic Complex Patterns in Commodity Prices
355(24)
Arjun Chatrath
Bahram Adrangi
Kanwalroop K. Dhanda
Chaos: concepts and implications for commodity markets
358(3)
Testing for Chaos
361(3)
Evidence from the Commodity Futures Markets
364(9)
Conclusion
373(6)
Appendix: Simulated Critical Values for the BDS Test Statistic
374(1)
References
374(5)
A review of stock market prediction using computational methods
379(26)
I.E. Diakoulakis
D.E. Koulouriotis
D.M. Emiris
Introduction
379(2)
Classification and Analysis of published works
381(17)
Conclusions
398(7)
References
399(6)
Numerical strategies for solving SUR models
405(24)
Paolo Foschi
Lucien Garin
Erricos J. Kontoghiorghes
Introduction
405(2)
Numerical solution of SUR models
407(5)
Computational aspects
412(11)
Conclusions
423(6)
References
425(4)
Time-Frequency Representations in the Analysis of Stock Market Data
429(26)
Gonul Turhan-Sayan
Serdar Sayan
Introduction
430(3)
The theoretical framework
433(2)
Implementation and results
435(10)
Robustness of the results
445(5)
Conclusions
450(5)
References
451(4)
Opportunity cost algorithms for combinatorial auctions
455(26)
Karhan Akcoglu
James Aspnes
Bhaskar DasGupta
Ming-Yang Kao
Introduction
456(3)
Simple combinatorial auctions
459(4)
Properties of β
463(6)
Auctions with budget constraints
469(6)
Further Research
475(6)
References
476(5)
A finite states contraction algorithm for dynamic models
481(20)
Jenny X. Li
The Model
483(3)
Contractive properties
486(3)
Finite Element Discretizations
489(3)
Second example
492(3)
On the existence of non-steady-state equilibrium path
495(2)
Conclusion
497(4)
References
498(3)
Traffic network equilibrium and the environment
501(24)
Anna Nagurney
June Dong
Patricia L. Mokhtarian
Introduction
502(2)
The Traffic Network Equilibrium Model with an Environmental Criterion
504(3)
Qualitative Properties
507(3)
A Bicriteria Model with Policy Implications
510(6)
The Algorithm
516(1)
Numerical Example
517(8)
Mathematical model of technology diffusion in developing countries
525(16)
Ding Zhang
Alfred Ntoko
June Dong
Introduction
526(1)
Enabling Environmental Factors
527(4)
A Mathematical Model of Diffusion of Technology
531(3)
A Numerical Example
534(2)
Conclusions
536(5)
References
538(3)
Estimation of Stochastic Volatility Models
541(16)
Francesco Bartolucci
Giovanni De Luca
Introduction
541(2)
The class of SV models
543(1)
Estimation methods
544(2)
The approximate likelihood and its derivatives
546(4)
Maximizing the approximate likelihood
550(1)
An application
551(2)
Discussion
553(4)
References
556(1)
Genetic programming with syntactic restrictions applied to financial volatility forecasting
557(26)
Gilles Zumbach
Olivier V. Pictet
Oliver Masutti
Introduction
558(2)
Genetic Programming with Syntactic Restrictions
560(9)
Function fitting
569(4)
Volatility Forecasting Models Inference
573(6)
Conclusion
579(4)
References
580(3)
Simulation-based tests of PTM
583(22)
Lynda Khalaf
Maral Kichian
Introduction
584(3)
Test Equations and Endogeneity
587(5)
IV-Based Tests
592(8)
Conclusion
600(5)
Appendix: Description of the Data
601(1)
References
602(3)
Credit risk assessment using a multicriteria hierarchical discrimination approach
605
K. Kosmidou
G. Papadimitriou
M. Doumpos
C. Zopounidis
Introduction and related research
605
The Multi-Group Hierarchical Discrimination Method
608
Applications
610
Conclusions
619
References
620

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