Contributors |
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About the Contributors |
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Series Preface |
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xvii | |
Preface |
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xxi | |
THEME I MODEL AND FORECAST COMBINATIONS |
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1 | (142) |
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What Exactly Should We Be Optimising? Criterion Risk in Multicomponent and Multimodel Forecasting |
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3 | (24) |
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3 | (1) |
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3 | (2) |
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Model Combination and Criterion Risk |
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5 | (5) |
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A Population-based Algorithm to Perform Joint Optimisation of a Portfolio of Models |
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10 | (4) |
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Simulation Results with Synthetic Data |
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14 | (6) |
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Empirical Results for a Portfolio of Statistical Arbitrage Models |
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20 | (5) |
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25 | (2) |
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26 | (1) |
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A Meta-parameter Approach to the Construction of Forecasting Models for Trading Systems |
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27 | (18) |
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27 | (1) |
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27 | (2) |
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Developing Forecasting Models for Trading Systems |
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29 | (3) |
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Synthetic Example of the Joint Optimisation Technique |
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32 | (6) |
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Application to Statistical Arbitrage Trading |
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38 | (5) |
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43 | (2) |
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44 | (1) |
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The Use of Market Data and Model Combination to Improve Forecast Accuracy |
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45 | (36) |
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45 | (1) |
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45 | (1) |
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The Exchange Rate and Volatility Data |
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46 | (5) |
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The Volatility Models and Estimation Procedure |
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51 | (6) |
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The Out-of-Sample Estimation Results |
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57 | (12) |
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69 | (12) |
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70 | (2) |
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72 | (3) |
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75 | (3) |
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78 | (1) |
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78 | (3) |
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21 Nonlinear Ways to Beat the Market |
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81 | (36) |
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81 | (1) |
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81 | (1) |
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82 | (4) |
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86 | (10) |
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96 | (4) |
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100 | (7) |
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107 | (10) |
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108 | (1) |
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108 | (2) |
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110 | (7) |
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Predicting High Performance Stocks Using Dimensionality Reduction Techniques Based on Neural Networks |
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117 | (26) |
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117 | (1) |
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117 | (1) |
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Principal Components Analysis |
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118 | (2) |
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Neural Network Linear Principal Components Analysis |
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120 | (1) |
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Neural Network Nonlinear Principal Components Analysis |
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121 | (3) |
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Data and Forecast Methodology |
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124 | (3) |
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127 | (6) |
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133 | (10) |
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133 | (1) |
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133 | (1) |
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134 | (9) |
THEME II STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND LONG MEMORY |
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143 | (54) |
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Structural Change and Long Memory in Volatility: New Evidence from Daily Exchange Rates |
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145 | (14) |
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145 | (1) |
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145 | (1) |
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146 | (2) |
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The Single-regime FIGRACH Model |
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148 | (1) |
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The Markov-Switching FIGARCH Model |
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149 | (7) |
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156 | (3) |
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156 | (1) |
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156 | (3) |
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Long-run Volatility Dependencies in Intraday Data and Mixture of Normal Distributions |
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159 | (20) |
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159 | (1) |
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159 | (1) |
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160 | (9) |
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Long Memory from Intraday Returns |
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169 | (5) |
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174 | (5) |
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175 | (1) |
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175 | (2) |
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Appendix 7.1: Data Construction |
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177 | (1) |
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Appendix 7.2: Data Transformation |
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177 | (2) |
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Comparison of Parameter Estimation Methods in Cyclical Long Memory Time Series |
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179 | (18) |
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179 | (1) |
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179 | (3) |
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Semiparametric Estimation |
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182 | (4) |
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Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood Estimation |
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186 | (2) |
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188 | (5) |
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193 | (4) |
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194 | (1) |
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194 | (3) |
THEME III CONTROLLING DOWNSIDE RISK AND INVESTMENT STRATEGIES |
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197 | (102) |
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Building a Mean Downside Risk Portfolio Frontier |
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199 | (14) |
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199 | (1) |
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199 | (2) |
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The Mean DSR Portfolio Frontier: The Bivariate Case |
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201 | (4) |
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205 | (2) |
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207 | (2) |
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209 | (2) |
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211 | (2) |
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211 | (1) |
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211 | (2) |
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Implementing Discrete-time Dynamic Investment Strategies with Downside Risk: A Comparison of Returns and Investment Policies |
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213 | (18) |
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213 | (1) |
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213 | (1) |
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214 | (4) |
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218 | (1) |
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219 | (9) |
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Summary and Concluding Remarks |
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228 | (3) |
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228 | (3) |
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Portfolio Optimisation in a Downside Risk Framework |
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231 | (8) |
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231 | (1) |
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231 | (1) |
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232 | (2) |
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234 | (2) |
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Summary and Concluding Remarks |
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236 | (3) |
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References and Bibliography |
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236 | (3) |
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The Three-moment CAPM: Theoretical Foundations and an Asset Pricing Model Comparison in a Unified Framework |
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239 | (36) |
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239 | (1) |
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239 | (3) |
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Investor's Preferences and the Three-moment CAPM |
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242 | (5) |
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247 | (15) |
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262 | (13) |
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262 | (1) |
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263 | (3) |
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266 | (1) |
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266 | (1) |
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267 | (1) |
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268 | (1) |
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269 | (1) |
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269 | (1) |
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270 | (1) |
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271 | (1) |
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271 | (1) |
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272 | (3) |
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Stress-testing Correlations: An Application to Portfolio Risk Management |
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275 | (24) |
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275 | (1) |
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The Fall of LTCM and the Credit Crisis of August 1998 |
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275 | (5) |
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Stressing the General Level of Correlation of a Given Portfolio |
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280 | (9) |
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Stress-testing Correlation Matrices |
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289 | (8) |
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297 | (2) |
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297 | (2) |
Index |
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299 | |