Developments in Forecast Combination and Portfolio Choice

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Edition: 1st
Format: Hardcover
Pub. Date: 2001-10-08
Publisher(s): WILEY
List Price: $181.33

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Summary

Developments in Forecast Combination and Portfolio Choice focuses on the following three themes: model and forecast combinations; structural change and long memory, controlling downside risk and investment strategies. Written by leading international researchers and practitioners, his book deals efficiently with three key questions facing portfolio managers. How to achieve greater forecasting accuracy; how to deal with structural change in asset allocation models and how to control downside risk, i.e. the risk of loss, in portfolio management.

Author Biography

<B>CHRISTIAN L. DUNIS </B>is Girobank Professor of Banking and Finance at Liverpool Business School, and Director of its Centre for International Banking, Economics and Finance (CIBEF). He is also a consultant to asset management firms and an Official Reviewer attached to the European Commission for the evaluation of applications to Finance of emerging software technologies. He is an Editor of the <I>European Journal of Finance </I>and has published widely in the field of financial market analysis and forecasting. <P> <B>ALLAN TIMMERMANN</B> is Professor of Economics at University of California, San Diego. He is on the editorial board of the J<I>ournal of Forecasting</I> and <I>Journal of Business and Economic Statistics</I>. His research is concerned with modelling the dynamics and predictability of returns in financial markets. Professor Timmermann has held positions at Birkbeck College and the London School of Economics. <P> <B>JOHN MOODY</B> is the Director of the Computational Finance program and a Professor of Computer Science at the Oregon Graduate Institute. His research interests include computational finance, time series analysis and machine learning. Professor Moody has held positions at Yale University and the Institute for Theoretical Physics. <P>

Table of Contents

Contributors ix
About the Contributors xi
Series Preface xvii
Preface xxi
THEME I MODEL AND FORECAST COMBINATIONS 1(142)
What Exactly Should We Be Optimising? Criterion Risk in Multicomponent and Multimodel Forecasting
3(24)
A. Neil Burgess
Abstract
3(1)
Introduction
3(2)
Model Combination and Criterion Risk
5(5)
A Population-based Algorithm to Perform Joint Optimisation of a Portfolio of Models
10(4)
Simulation Results with Synthetic Data
14(6)
Empirical Results for a Portfolio of Statistical Arbitrage Models
20(5)
Conclusion
25(2)
References
26(1)
A Meta-parameter Approach to the Construction of Forecasting Models for Trading Systems
27(18)
Neville Towers
A. Neil Burgess
Abstract
27(1)
Introduction
27(2)
Developing Forecasting Models for Trading Systems
29(3)
Synthetic Example of the Joint Optimisation Technique
32(6)
Application to Statistical Arbitrage Trading
38(5)
Conclusions
43(2)
References
44(1)
The Use of Market Data and Model Combination to Improve Forecast Accuracy
45(36)
Christian L. Dunis
Jason Laws
Stephane Chauvin
Abstract
45(1)
Introduction
45(1)
The Exchange Rate and Volatility Data
46(5)
The Volatility Models and Estimation Procedure
51(6)
The Out-of-Sample Estimation Results
57(12)
Conclusion
69(12)
References
70(2)
Appendix 3.1
72(3)
Appendix 3.2
75(3)
Appendix 3.3
78(1)
Appendix 3.4
78(3)
21 Nonlinear Ways to Beat the Market
81(36)
George T. Albanis
Roy A. Batchelor
Abstract
81(1)
Introduction
81(1)
Data and Trading Rules
82(4)
Classification Methods
86(10)
Implementation
96(4)
Results
100(7)
Conclusion
107(10)
Acknowledgements
108(1)
References
108(2)
Appendix 4.1
110(7)
Predicting High Performance Stocks Using Dimensionality Reduction Techniques Based on Neural Networks
117(26)
George T. Albanis
Roy A. Batchelor
Abstract
117(1)
Introduction
117(1)
Principal Components Analysis
118(2)
Neural Network Linear Principal Components Analysis
120(1)
Neural Network Nonlinear Principal Components Analysis
121(3)
Data and Forecast Methodology
124(3)
Results
127(6)
Conclusion
133(10)
Acknowledgements
133(1)
References
133(1)
Appendix 5.1
134(9)
THEME II STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND LONG MEMORY 143(54)
Structural Change and Long Memory in Volatility: New Evidence from Daily Exchange Rates
145(14)
Michael Beine
Sebastien Laurent
Abstract
145(1)
Introduction
145(1)
Preliminary Evidence
146(2)
The Single-regime FIGRACH Model
148(1)
The Markov-Switching FIGARCH Model
149(7)
Conclusion
156(3)
Acknowledgements
156(1)
References
156(3)
Long-run Volatility Dependencies in Intraday Data and Mixture of Normal Distributions
159(20)
Aurelie Boubel
Sebastien Laurent
Abstract
159(1)
Introduction
159(1)
The Intraday Volatility
160(9)
Long Memory from Intraday Returns
169(5)
Conclusion
174(5)
Acknowledgements
175(1)
References
175(2)
Appendix 7.1: Data Construction
177(1)
Appendix 7.2: Data Transformation
177(2)
Comparison of Parameter Estimation Methods in Cyclical Long Memory Time Series
179(18)
Laurent Ferrara
Dominique Guegan
Abstract
179(1)
Introduction
179(3)
Semiparametric Estimation
182(4)
Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood Estimation
186(2)
Application
188(5)
Conclusion
193(4)
Acknowledgements
194(1)
References
194(3)
THEME III CONTROLLING DOWNSIDE RISK AND INVESTMENT STRATEGIES 197(102)
Building a Mean Downside Risk Portfolio Frontier
199(14)
Gustavo M. de Athayde
Abstract
199(1)
Introduction
199(2)
The Mean DSR Portfolio Frontier: The Bivariate Case
201(4)
The Algorithm
205(2)
The Multivariate Case
207(2)
Asset Pricing
209(2)
Conclusion
211(2)
Acknowledgements
211(1)
References
211(2)
Implementing Discrete-time Dynamic Investment Strategies with Downside Risk: A Comparison of Returns and Investment Policies
213(18)
Mattias Persson
Abstract
213(1)
Introduction
213(1)
Investment Models
214(4)
Data
218(1)
Results
219(9)
Summary and Concluding Remarks
228(3)
References
228(3)
Portfolio Optimisation in a Downside Risk Framework
231(8)
Riccardo Bramante
Barbara Cazzaniga
Abstract
231(1)
Introduction
231(1)
Methodology
232(2)
Empirical Evidence
234(2)
Summary and Concluding Remarks
236(3)
References and Bibliography
236(3)
The Three-moment CAPM: Theoretical Foundations and an Asset Pricing Model Comparison in a Unified Framework
239(36)
Emmanuel Jurczenko
Bertrand Maillet
Abstract
239(1)
Introduction
239(3)
Investor's Preferences and the Three-moment CAPM
242(5)
The Three-moment CAPM
247(15)
Conclusion
262(13)
Acknowledgements
262(1)
References
263(3)
Appendix 12.1
266(1)
Appendix 12.2
266(1)
Appendix 12.3
267(1)
Appendix 12.4
268(1)
Appendix 12.5
269(1)
Appendix 12.6
269(1)
Appendix 12.7
270(1)
Appendix 12.8
271(1)
Appendix 12.9
271(1)
Appendix 12.10
272(3)
Stress-testing Correlations: An Application to Portfolio Risk Management
275(24)
Frederick Bourgoin
Abstract
275(1)
The Fall of LTCM and the Credit Crisis of August 1998
275(5)
Stressing the General Level of Correlation of a Given Portfolio
280(9)
Stress-testing Correlation Matrices
289(8)
Conclusion
297(2)
References
297(2)
Index 299

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