Effects-Based Operations (EBO) A Grand Challenge for the Analytical Community,9780833031082

Effects-Based Operations (EBO) A Grand Challenge for the Analytical Community

by
ISBN13: 9780833031082
ISBN10: 0833031082
Format: Paperback
Pub. Date: 2002-01-25
Publisher(s): RAND Corporation
List Price: $20.00

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Summary

This report describes principles and considerations for future analyses of effects-based operations.

Table of Contents

Preface iii
Figures
ix
Tables
xi
Summary xiii
Acknowledgments xix
Acronyms xxi
Introduction
1(6)
Objectives
1(1)
Background
1(5)
A New Movement Stressing EBO
1(1)
A Way of Viewing the EBO Movement
2(3)
Opportuty and a Grand Challenge
5(1)
Organization of This Monograph
6(1)
Definitions, Dimensions, and Distinctions
7(14)
Definitional Issues
7(10)
A Suggested Definition
7(1)
Issues of Scope Implied by the Definition
8(3)
EBO as Expansion Rather than Substitution
11(3)
Definitions Need to Work for Both Sides
14(1)
Allowing Also for Virtual Wars
15(1)
Synthesis
15(2)
A Simple Taxonomy and Some Examples of EBO
17(4)
A Simple Taxonomy
17(1)
Other Distinctions
18(1)
Examples
18(3)
Challenges in Addressing EBO
21(8)
Lessons in Humility
21(3)
Strategic Misjudgments Related to Understanding and Influencing Adversaries
21(3)
Operational-Level Experiences: An EBO Scorecard for the Gulf War
24(1)
Why EBO Is Difficult: It's the CAS Effect, Stupid!
24(5)
Unpredictability
26(1)
Mysteriousness
26(3)
Suggested Principles for Analysis in the Context of EBO
29(20)
Suggested Principles
29(1)
Mission-System Analysis
30(5)
Characterization
30(3)
Depicting Results of MSA
33(1)
But How Much Is Enough?
34(1)
Highlighting the System Aspects
35(1)
Exploratory Analysis to Confront Uncertainty
35(3)
Confronting Uncertainty
35(1)
Using a Family of Models and Games
35(2)
The Need to Address probabilities
37(1)
Discussing Probabilistic Matters Simply
38(1)
Qualitative Modeling
38(8)
Initial Observations
38(4)
Adding Sophistication: Situational Dependence and Time Dependence
42(1)
Cognitive Models
43(3)
Pursuit of Empirical Information
46(1)
Structuring Models Around Command and Control
46(3)
Examples of How EBO Can be Represented Analytically
49(30)
A Baseline Problem and Analysis
49(6)
The Baseline Halt Problem
49(3)
An Innovative Operational Concept
52(1)
Enemy Counteractions
53(2)
Rethinking from an Effects-Based Perspective
55(12)
Questioning the Assumptions
55(2)
The Potential for Early Strikes Imposing Delays
57(3)
Defeating the Enemy Piecemeal
60(1)
Considering the Upside and the Downside
61(1)
The Non-Ideal Case: Thinking About Early Use of Ground Forces
62(5)
Qualitative Modeling
67(11)
Some Speculations Based on History
67(1)
What Might a Qualitative Model Look Like?
68(3)
The Dimensions of a Fuller Theory
71(2)
Simplifying the Theory, if It Has Been Formulated
73(2)
A Cognitive Model of a Commander
75(2)
Going Deeper
77(1)
Distinctions Between Operations Planning and Defense Planning
78(1)
Conclusions
79(6)
A Grand Challenge
79(1)
Principles for an Approach
79(2)
Next Steps
81(4)
Bibliography 85

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