Long-Term Secrets to Short-Term Trading
by Williams, LarryEdition: 2nd
Format: Hardcover
Pub. Date: 2011-12-06
Publisher(s): Wiley
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Summary
Hugely popular market guru updates his popular trading strategy for a post-crisis world From Larry Williams one of the most popular and respected technical analysts of the past four decades Long-Term Secrets to Short-Term Trading, Second Edition provides the blueprint necessary for sound and profitable short-term trading in a post-market meltdown economy. In this updated edition of the evergreen trading book, Williams shares his years of experience as a highly successful short-term trader, while highlighting the advantages and disadvantages of what can be a very fruitful yet potentially dangerous endeavor. Offers market wisdom on a wide range of topics, including chaos, speculation, volatility breakouts, and profit patterns Explains fundamentals such as how the market moves, the three most dominant cycles, when to exit a trade, and how to hold on to winners Includes in-depth analysis of the most effective short-term trading strategies, as well as the authors winning technical indicators Short-term trading offers tremendous upside. At the same time, the practice is also extremely risky. Minimize your risk and maximize your opportunities for success with Larry Williamss Long-Term Secrets to Short-Term Trading, Second Edition.
Author Biography
Larry R. Williams has been trading for almost fifty years and is one of the most highly regarded short-term traders in the world. Larry has taught thousands to trade, won several trading championships, and since 1970 has been writing bestselling books based on his technical indicator, Williams %R, developed in 1966 and still published daily in major financial newspapers and on finance and investing sites. Between trading, researching, and developing trading tools, he ran twice for the U.S. Senate, was a board member of the National Futures Association, and has received numerous awards, including Futures magazine's first Doctor of Futures Award, the Omega Research Lifetime Achievement Award, and Traders International 2005 Trader of the Year. The Mayor of San Diego declared October 6th, 2002 "Larry Williams' Day." Larry has been featured on CNBC and Fox News, and has been interviewed and quoted in more publications than he can keep track of.</p
Table of Contents
| Acknowledgments | p. xi |
| INTRODUCTION You Are Already a Commodity Trader | p. 1 |
| My Most Important Market Belief | p. 4 |
| The Beginning of My Career as a Speculator | p. 5 |
| The Ride of a Lifetime | p. 8 |
| Making Order Out of Short-Term Chaos | p. 9 |
| How I Learned about the Market | p. 9 |
| Charting the Market | p. 11 |
| The Nonrandom Market | p. 13 |
| Understanding Market Structure | p. 15 |
| Market Structure Will Never Change | p. 21 |
| Short-Sell Pattern | p. 27 |
| Target Time and Trailing Stops | p. 28 |
| Recap | p. 32 |
| ItâÇÖs a Question of Price and Time | p. 33 |
| All You Will Ever Need to Know about Cycles | p. 33 |
| The Natural Cycle of Range Change | p. 39 |
| Where the Trend Is with You—The Second Power-Play Price Pattern | p. 50 |
| Recap | p. 54 |
| The Real Secret to Short-Term Trading | p. 59 |
| ItâÇÖs All about Time | p. 61 |
| Bankrolling Hotshot Traders | p. 62 |
| Proving the Point | p. 65 |
| How to Make the Most Money | p. 68 |
| Recap | p. 70 |
| Volatility Breakouts—The Momentum Breakthrough | p. 71 |
| Simple Daily Range Breakouts | p. 76 |
| A Look at Volatility in the S&P 500 | p. 80 |
| Separating Buyers from Sellers to Find Volatility Using Market Swings | p. 95 |
| Results | p. 96 |
| One Step Further | p. 97 |
| Recap | p. 98 |
| The Theory of Short-Term Trading | p. 99 |
| What Is Wrong about the Information Age | p. 103 |
| E. H. HarrimanâÇÖs Rule of Making Millions | p. 104 |
| Recap | p. 105 |
| Getting Closer to the Truth | p. 107 |
| The Market Is Not a Coin Flip: Random Walk or Cootner versus Cohen (Cohen Wins) | p. 108 |
| Gold TDOM Study | p. 117 |
| Bond TDOM Study | p. 118 |
| Monthly Road Maps | p. 120 |
| Recap | p. 123 |
| Patterns to Profit | p. 125 |
| The Common Element | p. 126 |
| The Questions to Ask | p. 131 |
| My Smash Day Patterns | p. 132 |
| How to Use Smash Day Patterns | p. 136 |
| SpecialistsâÇÖ Trap | p. 137 |
| A Vital Note—This Works on Shorter Time Frames as Well | p. 141 |
| Oops! This Is Not a Mistake | p. 145 |
| S&P Oops! Trading | p. 151 |
| Recap | p. 152 |
| Separating the Buyers from the Sellers | p. 153 |
| Greatest Swing Value | p. 155 |
| Stock Index Trading with Greatest Swing Value | p. 156 |
| Some Pointers | p. 160 |
| Recap | p. 161 |
| Short-Term Trading from a Quote Screen | p. 163 |
| How a Quote-Screen Trader Makes Money | p. 165 |
| Swing Points as Trend Change Indication | p. 166 |
| The Three-Bar High/Low System | p. 167 |
| A New Indicator for Short-Term Traders: Willspread | p. 170 |
| Willspread and the S&P 500 Stock Index | p. 174 |
| Recap | p. 180 |
| Special Short-Term Situations | p. 181 |
| Month-End Trading in Stock Indexes | p. 181 |
| Target Months | p. 184 |
| Making It Better | p. 184 |
| Month-End Trading in the Bond Market | p. 186 |
| Getting Specific | p. 187 |
| Better and Better | p. 188 |
| A Time to Sell | p. 191 |
| Recap | p. 193 |
| When to Get Out of Your Trades | p. 195 |
| Thoughts on the Business of Speculation | p. 197 |
| Exits before Entries | p. 197 |
| What Speculation Is All About | p. 200 |
| ItâÇÖs about Time | p. 201 |
| Essential Points about Speculation | p. 202 |
| Recap | p. 215 |
| Money Management—The Keys to the Kingdom | p. 217 |
| Most Traders Use a Hit-and-Miss Approach | p. 218 |
| Approaches to Money Management—One Is Right for You | p. 218 |
| The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly of Money Management | p. 219 |
| Looking in New Directions, Drawdown as an Asset | p. 222 |
| Back to Ralph: 2011 Money Management Breakthrough | p. 228 |
| The Kelly Ratio Mirage | p. 229 |
| Recap | p. 233 |
| From Kennedy to Obama, Thoughts from 50 Years of Trading | p. 235 |
| Trading and Collecting Honey | p. 236 |
| Low-Hanging Fruit | p. 237 |
| Look before You Leap | p. 238 |
| Remember the Game Called Pick Up Sticks | p. 238 |
| And It Can Get Worse by Far. . . | p. 239 |
| Lock-Up Time | p. 240 |
| Enough on Greed . . .Now LetâÇÖs Deal with Fear | p. 241 |
| Running, Trading, and Losing | p. 242 |
| Doing the Wrong Thing . . . ItâÇÖs So Easy, IsnâÇÖt It? | p. 242 |
| ItâÇÖs Not the Trade, ItâÇÖs the Battle | p. 243 |
| The Art of Fly-Fishing Revisited | p. 244 |
| Fear and Greed, Looking Them in the Face Again | p. 245 |
| Why Most Traders Lose Most of the Time | p. 246 |
| A Review of Losing Trades Showed That | p. 247 |
| The Number One Reason We Lose Money Trading | p. 247 |
| The Most Important Trading Belief You Have | p. 248 |
| The Worst Dog I Ever Had Cost Me the Most | p. 249 |
| Athletics Are Such a Parallel to Trading | p. 251 |
| What Causes Stock and Commodity Market Trends | p. 251 |
| How to Measure the Public versus the Pros | p. 253 |
| Folks, It Just CanâÇÖt Be Done | p. 254 |
| The Rush of Trading | p. 255 |
| Beating Them to the Punch | p. 257 |
| ItâÇÖs Just Over My Head | p. 259 |
| I Looked Fear and Greed in the Face | p. 259 |
| The ShowMust Go On | p. 260 |
| Broken Noses, Cauliflower Ears, and Bad Trades | p. 261 |
| Learning How to Lose Money | p. 262 |
| Hillary, High Hopes, and Heartaches | p. 263 |
| Nervous Nellies—Heaven Bound | p. 264 |
| Secrets of System Developing and Trading | p. 265 |
| The Difference between Winners and Losers | p. 266 |
| Recap | p. 268 |
| Just What Does Make the Stock Market Rally? | p. 269 |
| Logic 101 | p. 270 |
| These Words Are My Bond | p. 270 |
| A Look at Data A and Data B | p. 270 |
| LetâÇÖs Break Some Bad Habits | p. 273 |
| How to Break Bad Habits | p. 273 |
| Comments on Setting Stops—Dollar Loss and Unpredictability | p. 275 |
| An Overview of How I Trade | p. 278 |
| My Trading Strategy . . .How It Works | p. 282 |
| Recap | p. 285 |
| Hard Facts about a Very Hard Game to Win | p. 287 |
| It Is Just Like Life | p. 289 |
| Maybe You Are Not Cut Out for This . . . | p. 292 |
| You Are in a Tough Spot . . . | p. 293 |
| But ThereâÇÖs a Little Bit More. . . | p. 294 |
| In Closing | p. 295 |
| Index | p. 297 |
| Table of Contents provided by Publisher. All Rights Reserved. |
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