Making Hard Decisions With Decision Tools Suite Update 2004
by Clemen, Robert T.; Reilly, TerryEdition: CD
Format: Paperback
Pub. Date: 2003-11-24
Publisher(s): Duxbury Press
Other versions by this Author
List Price: $125.95
Buy New
Usually ships in 2 to 3 business days.
$125.82
Rent Textbook
Select for Price
Used Textbook
We're Sorry
Sold Out
eTextbook
We're Sorry
Not Available
How Marketplace Works:
- This item is offered by an independent seller and not shipped from our warehouse
- Item details like edition and cover design may differ from our description; see seller's comments before ordering.
- Sellers much confirm and ship within two business days; otherwise, the order will be cancelled and refunded.
- Marketplace purchases cannot be returned to eCampus.com. Contact the seller directly for inquiries; if no response within two days, contact customer service.
- Additional shipping costs apply to Marketplace purchases. Review shipping costs at checkout.
Author Biography
Robert T. Clemen is a Professor at the Fuqua School of Business at Duke University Terence Reilly is the Gillette Professor of mathematics at Babson College
Table of Contents
| Preface | p. xxi |
| Introduction to Decision Analysis | p. 1 |
| Gypsy Moths and the Oda | p. 1 |
| Why Are Decisions Hard? | p. 2 |
| Why Study Decision Analysis? | p. 3 |
| Subjective Judgments and Decision Making | p. 5 |
| The Decision-Analysis Process | p. 5 |
| Where Is Decision Analysis Used? | p. 8 |
| Where Does the Software Fit In? | p. 9 |
| Where Are We Going from Here? | p. 11 |
| Modeling Decisions | p. 19 |
| Elements of Decision Problems | p. 21 |
| Values and Objectives | p. 21 |
| Making Money: A Special Objective | p. 22 |
| Values and the Current Decision Context | p. 23 |
| Boeing's Supercomputer | p. 24 |
| Decisions to Make | p. 25 |
| Sequential Decisions | p. 26 |
| Uncertain Events | p. 27 |
| Consequences | p. 29 |
| The Time Value of Money: A Special Kind of Trade-Off | p. 30 |
| Larkin Oil | p. 33 |
| Structuring Decisions | p. 43 |
| Structuring Values | p. 44 |
| Hiring a Summer Intern | p. 44 |
| Fundamental and Means Objectives | p. 46 |
| Getting the Decision Context Right | p. 51 |
| Structuring Decisions: Influence Diagrams | p. 52 |
| Influence Diagrams and the Fundamental-Objectives Hierarchy | p. 54 |
| Using Arcs to Represent Relationships | p. 55 |
| Some Basic Influence Diagrams | p. 57 |
| Constructing an Influence Diagram (Optional) | p. 65 |
| Toxic Chemicals and the Epa | p. 65 |
| Structuring Decisions: Decision Trees | p. 69 |
| Decision Trees and the Objectives Hierarchy | p. 71 |
| Some Basic Decision Trees | p. 72 |
| Decision Trees and Influence Diagrams Compared | p. 76 |
| Decision Details: Defining Elements of the Decision | p. 76 |
| More Decision Details: Cash Flows and Probabilities | p. 78 |
| Defining Measurement Scales for Fundamental Objectives | p. 79 |
| Using PrecisionTree for Structuring Decisions | p. 83 |
| Making Choices | p. 111 |
| Texaco Versus Pennzoil | p. 111 |
| Decision Trees and Expected Monetary Value | p. 115 |
| Solving Influence Diagrams: Overview | p. 119 |
| Solving Influence Diagrams: The Details (Optional) | p. 121 |
| Solving Influence Diagrams: An Algorithm (Optional) | p. 127 |
| Risk Profiles | p. 128 |
| Dominance: An Alternative to EMV | p. 133 |
| Making Decisions with Multiple Objectives | p. 137 |
| The Summer Job | p. 138 |
| Analysis: One Objective at a Time | p. 140 |
| Subjective Ratings for Constructed Attribute Scales | p. 140 |
| Assessing Trade-Off Weights | p. 142 |
| Analysis: Expected Values and Risk Profiles for Two Objectives | p. 143 |
| Decision Analysis Using PrecisionTree | p. 146 |
| Sensitivity Analysis | p. 174 |
| Eagle Airlines | p. 174 |
| Sensitivity Analysis: A Modeling Approach | p. 175 |
| Problem Identification and Structure | p. 176 |
| One-Way Sensitivity Analysis | p. 179 |
| Tornado Diagrams | p. 180 |
| Dominance Considerations | p. 181 |
| Two-Way Sensitivity Analysis | p. 183 |
| Sensitivity to Probabilities | p. 184 |
| Two-Way Sensitivity Analysis for Three Alternatives (Optional) | p. 188 |
| Investing in the Stock Market | p. 189 |
| Sensitivity Analysis in Action | p. 192 |
| Heart Disease in Infants | p. 192 |
| Sensitivity Analysis Using TopRank and PrecisionTree | p. 193 |
| Sensitivity Analysis: A Built-In Irony | p. 206 |
| Creativity and Decision Making | p. 217 |
| What Is Creativity? | p. 218 |
| Theories of Creativity | p. 219 |
| Chains of Thought | p. 219 |
| Phases of the Creative Process | p. 220 |
| Blocks to Creativity | p. 222 |
| The Monk and the Mountain | p. 222 |
| Making Cigars | p. 223 |
| Ping-Pong Ball in a Pipe | p. 227 |
| Value-Focused Thinking for Creating Alternatives | p. 230 |
| Transportation of Nuclear Waste | p. 231 |
| Other Creativity Techniques | p. 233 |
| Creating Decision Opportunities | p. 239 |
| Modeling Uncertainty | p. 247 |
| Probability Basics | p. 249 |
| A Little Probability Theory | p. 250 |
| Venn Diagrams | p. 250 |
| More Probability Formulas | p. 251 |
| Uncertain Quantities | p. 256 |
| Examples | p. 272 |
| Oil Wildcatting | p. 272 |
| John Hinckley's Trial | p. 278 |
| Decision-Analysis Software and Bayes' Theorem | p. 280 |
| Subjective Probability | p. 295 |
| Uncertainty and Public Policy | p. 295 |
| Probability: A Subjective Interpretation | p. 297 |
| Accounting for Contingent Losses | p. 298 |
| Assessing Discrete Probabilities | p. 299 |
| Assessing Continuous Probabilities | p. 303 |
| Pitfalls: Heuristics and Biases | p. 311 |
| Tom W. | p. 311 |
| Decomposition and Probability Assessment | p. 315 |
| Experts and Probability Assessment: Pulling It All Together | p. 321 |
| Climate Change at Yucca Mountain, Nevada | p. 324 |
| Coherence and the Dutch Book (Optional) | p. 326 |
| Constructing Distributions Using RISKview | p. 328 |
| Theoretical Probability Models | p. 352 |
| Theoretical Models Applied | p. 353 |
| The Binomial Distribution | p. 354 |
| The Poisson Distribution | p. 358 |
| The Exponential Distribution | p. 361 |
| The Normal Distribution | p. 363 |
| The Beta Distribution | p. 369 |
| Viewing Theoretical Distributions with RISKview | p. 373 |
| Using Data | p. 398 |
| Using Data to Construct Probability Distributions | p. 398 |
| Halfway Houses | p. 400 |
| Using Data to Fit Theoretical Probability Models | p. 404 |
| Fitting Distributions to Data | p. 405 |
| Using Data to Model Relationships | p. 412 |
| The Regression Approach | p. 414 |
| Natural Conjugate Distributions (Optional) | p. 436 |
| A Bayesian Approach to Regression Analysis (Optional) | p. 445 |
| Monte Carlo Simulation | p. 459 |
| Fashions | p. 460 |
| Using Uniform Random Numbers as Building Blocks | p. 463 |
| General Uniform Distributions | p. 464 |
| Exponential Distributions | p. 465 |
| Discrete Distributions | p. 466 |
| Other Distributions | p. 466 |
| Simulating Spreadsheet Models Using @RISK | p. 466 |
| Simulation, Decision Trees, and Influence Diagrams | p. 486 |
| Value of Information | p. 496 |
| Investing in the Stock Market | p. 496 |
| Value of Information: Some Basic Ideas | p. 497 |
| Expected Value of Perfect Information | p. 500 |
| Expected Value of Imperfect Information | p. 502 |
| Value of Information in Complex Problems | p. 508 |
| Value of Information, Sensitivity Analysis, and Structuring | p. 509 |
| Seeding Hurricanes | p. 510 |
| Value of Information and Nonmonetary Objectives | p. 511 |
| Value of Information and Experts | p. 512 |
| Calculating EVPI and EVII with PrecisionTree | p. 512 |
| Modeling Preferences | p. 525 |
| Risk Attitudes | p. 527 |
| E. H. Harriman Fights for the Northern Pacific Railroad | p. 528 |
| Risk | p. 529 |
| Risk Attitudes | p. 531 |
| Investing in the Stock Market, Revisited | p. 533 |
| Expected Utility, Certainty Equivalents, and Risk Premiums | p. 535 |
| Keeping Terms Straight | p. 539 |
| Utility Function Assessment | p. 539 |
| Risk Tolerance and the Exponential Utility Function | p. 543 |
| Modeling Preferences Using PrecisionTree | p. 546 |
| Decreasing and Constant Risk Aversion (Optional) | p. 551 |
| Some Caveats | p. 556 |
| Utility Axioms, Paradoxes, and Implications | p. 571 |
| Preparing for an Influenza Outbreak | p. 571 |
| Axioms for Expected Utility | p. 572 |
| Paradoxes | p. 578 |
| Implications | p. 582 |
| A Final Perspective | p. 586 |
| Conflicting Objectives I: Fundamental Objectives and the Additive Utility Function | p. 598 |
| Objectives and Attributes | p. 600 |
| Trading Off Conflicting Objectives: The Basics | p. 602 |
| The Additive Utility Function | p. 604 |
| Assessing Individual Utility Functions | p. 610 |
| Assessing Weights | p. 614 |
| Keeping Concepts Straight: Certainty versus Uncertainty | p. 620 |
| An Example: Library Choices | p. 621 |
| The Eugene Public Library | p. 621 |
| Using Software for Multiple-Objective Decisions | p. 628 |
| Conflicting Objectives II: Multiattribute Utility Models with Interactions | p. 644 |
| Multiattribute Utility Functions: Direct Assessment | p. 645 |
| Independence Conditions | p. 647 |
| Determining Whether Independence Exists | p. 648 |
| Using Independence | p. 650 |
| Additive Independence | p. 651 |
| Substitutes and Complements | p. 654 |
| Assessing a Two-Attribute Utility Function | p. 654 |
| The Blood Bank | p. 655 |
| Three or More Attributes (Optional) | p. 659 |
| When Independence Fails | p. 660 |
| Multiattribute Utility in Action: BC Hydro | p. 661 |
| Strategic Decisions at BC Hydro | p. 661 |
| Conclusion and Further Reading | p. 675 |
| A Decision-Analysis Reading List | p. 676 |
| Appendixes | p. 679 |
| Binomial Distribution: Individual Probabilities | p. 680 |
| Binomial Distribution: Cumulative Probabilities | p. 688 |
| Poisson Distribution: Individual Probabilities | p. 696 |
| Poisson Distribution: Cumulative Probabilities | p. 701 |
| Normal Distribution: Cumulative Probabilities | p. 706 |
| Beta Distribution: Cumulative Probabilities | p. 710 |
| Answers to Selected Exercises | p. 719 |
| Credits | p. 721 |
| Author Index | p. 722 |
| Subject Index | p. 725 |
| Table of Contents provided by Ingram. All Rights Reserved. |
An electronic version of this book is available through VitalSource.
This book is viewable on PC, Mac, iPhone, iPad, iPod Touch, and most smartphones.
By purchasing, you will be able to view this book online, as well as download it, for the chosen number of days.
Digital License
You are licensing a digital product for a set duration. Durations are set forth in the product description, with "Lifetime" typically meaning five (5) years of online access and permanent download to a supported device. All licenses are non-transferable.
More details can be found here.
A downloadable version of this book is available through the eCampus Reader or compatible Adobe readers.
Applications are available on iOS, Android, PC, Mac, and Windows Mobile platforms.
Please view the compatibility matrix prior to purchase.